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Jie Tan rational attitude (Shanghai) Real Estate Market

Time:2014-01-20 16:58Source:未知 Author:PAUL ZENG Click:
Moderator words ] As a reflection of the economic situation of a country or region s iconic boom projects, real estate market conditions has always been a factor can not be ignored . In recent years , Chinas major cities continued rapid ris
Moderator words ]
As a reflection of the economic situation of a country or region 's iconic boom projects, real estate market conditions has always been a factor can not be ignored . In recent years , China's major cities continued rapid rise in real estate prices , the real estate market is rapidly warming conditions, caused widespread concern at home and abroad . Cause of the high prices of the real estate market is very much the trend for the future of the real estate market is also different opinions, such as the "bubble ", "the ghost said," China's real estate market , such as bad-mouthing it heard. Government departments in order to promote the healthy and stable development of the property market this year, March 1 introduced mainly for strengthening the purchase , inhibit new "five countries " speculation and other policy measures .
As the real estate market itself is not only a major economic things , equally important is the relationship between people's livelihood to millions of households , and therefore the community government, business , and other people are extremely concerned about the real estate market , it is inevitable. The face of such a dazzled many people , trends and confusing real estate market is less clear how rationally all the changes of the real estate market is currently appearing ?
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[ Text Record ]
[ Moderator ] : Members LONDON users Hello everybody ! Welcome to the public caused by the Shanghai Municipal Committee and co-sponsored LONDON , LONDON live by Zhi Gong says something columns. Our program today invited Professor Chen Jie School of Public Economics and Management Department of Shanghai University of Finance and Investment . Professor Chen , in addition to price , and then there is the price people are most concerned about , a lot of people are complaining that I never catch up with the speed of money China 's housing prices , China 's housing prices are not always so unattainable ?
[ Guest Jie ] : In general , it makes sense to keep the price of the total income of contrast , if we average income compared with the case, for example, the average price of a house with a general average household income compared to the year , the so-called " price earnings ratio " , Chinese prices are very high indeed . Major cities most conservative estimate price earnings ratio , it also ten times . If you write out the demolition room only consider commercial housing in Shanghai is about twenty times , meaning that the average income of people who want to eat or drink for twenty years to buy a house. The international community generally six to seven times , like the United States , it is three to five times . Of course, should take into account China no property taxes , while abroad , so direct comparison price earnings ratio also has its problems. But in general, the Chinese housing prices relative sense is very expensive.
In addition, even more frightening is that the absolute price, Shanghai , and Beijing 's housing prices have been higher than most cities of the world , only a handful of basic international hotspot city of Hong Kong , New York and London , Moscow and other core areas prices Beijing than in Shanghai city center prices high. This is definitely not normal.
[ Moderator ] : Compared with other countries, much higher foreign prices in China and the biggest difference in what place ?
[ Guest Jie ] : the surface in many parts of China's real estate market and abroad are very close , and learn from Hong Kong . Not much difference from the perspective of the individual consumer to buy . But the biggest difference is that the supply side, land . In most cases the foreign land is private, as long as you own a farm or to meet certain conditions , you can apply for cover demand . Chinese State-owned land , the developer to build a house, you must get to from the State . So supply is still a monopoly , only the basic needs of the market , a semi- market state.
[ Moderator ] : Now a lot of foreigners come to China to invest , since it looks a little foreign conditions favorable than China , why many foreigners come to China to invest?
[ Guest Jie ] : This question is very interesting , in fact, not only has this problem on real estate . China on the one hand a lot of foreign investment , the world's second-largest destination for foreign direct investment . We are now out of the country , a lot of money to go outside investment. We lack no shortage of funds in the end it ? Why hand to absorb investment , on the other hand foreign investment ? It looks as if the capital is exactly the same , but people with capital are not the same, when he held capital, expectations of capital gains are not the same , his own knowledge , his ability is not the same , funds held feature is not the same , so I decided to different people have different comparative advantages at different times . Foreign investors believe that optimistic about China , or promising a certain section of a number of places, he believes there are opportunities , relative investment opportunities in the country , he still has more ROI , it came. While the domestic people who go out and buy a house abroad , he may have several , and this time he needs to asset diversification , eggs in one basket is not inside, so he went to a foreign country, this is a normal asset diversification behavior . Back to our topic today , we talk about "rational" view of the real estate market , but in fact there is no way to give everyone a rational view of different people based on their own circumstances, he needs and expectations of the housing is certainly not the same. So there is no one size fits -all "rational ." If anything rational, can only be " rational" mentality on . To adjust their mentality . House is just a tool , not to become a result. Now a lot of the time we are too anxious , look into the results of the house , so every day thinking about the house , every day, in considering the house, but in the end why the consideration of the house , did not think clearly.
[ Moderator ] : Many people may have forgotten why go to buy a house, home and room is actually a completely different concept , but the Chinese people 's minds is equated .
[ Guest Jie ] : Some time ago I talked with my one nephew , he was 5 years old, came out to play, say a word , I find it very interesting , "There are parents in the place is home ." In fact, we can compare, not everyone regarded the house look so heavy . Some time ago a news Nanjing a couple sold the house , the kids take a year out to travel around the States . House for them really does not matter. Of course, this is rather extreme . In Europe, especially in Germany , 60% of people are renting . On the one hand people work abroad mobile, security and stability on the other hand renting , prices are very small changes , he felt able to live stabilized, is home , and not have a house property , is the home. Domestic heat homeownership people really related to culture , and social security , but also with renting instability related , these are objective facts , but individuals still have the right to decide what kind of life they want, and should not be exhausted to worry about the house dead .
[ Moderator ] : Now a lot of people eager to change the status quo of his life , including some foreigners reason to buy a house , want to stay in this place, which may be a factor in all aspects of it.
[ Guest Jie ] : indeed very complex factors . Stay in one place does not necessarily need to buy a house , you can rent, buy a house if in fact the city is still optimistic about the future , to invest in the future of the city , representing the shareholders. Media said just, say people just live for yourself and housing, but it is inevitable to buy a house with the investment component . For example, in 2008 , when the relatively poor economic times , the decline in value of the house , stands to reason that you should just need to enter the market , but very few people buy a house then in fact , we are looking at is not really in the end it. Or " buy or not buy up " mentality . This is an investment psychology. So buyers it is difficult to separate what is there to live , what is investment , just what is needed .
[ Moderator ] : many foreigners to invest in China , including the U.S. economy is recovering , led many buyers to the real estate market. Such a phenomenon has little impact on China 's real estate market ?
[ Guest Jie ] : The U.S. real estate market is indeed recovering , but it is not stable , or to see the U.S. Q3 quantitative easing will continue , the current U.S. employment rate is not very optimistic, like 2,000 years ago after finding a new Internet technology , the U.S. economy is now in recovery after a serious illness , but can not exceed the economic recovery before it , have not found a new technology engine. China's real estate market, the negative point of view , the U.S. economy is good , and may raise interest rates after the hike , some of the hot money will go to the United States , the exchange rate will change if China also followed hike , then the Chinese real estate market may be relatively large pressure . But they also have a positive effect . U.S. economic recovery , it is a good thing for the world , China 's external economic upturn , and strong exports , and expectations for future economic good, will have a positive impact on the Chinese real estate . So there are positive and negative factors . I personally feel , from a negative point of view, it should not affect too much , U.S. interest rates will not rise too fast. We should hope that the U.S. economy has a relatively good development , which is beneficial to the Chinese economy . Of course, this will increase pressure on the formation of China 's real estate . It depends on the policy to grasp the point . This government is quite clear , the idea is quite the same, there should not be a massive stimulus , especially designed for stimulating real estate. So this year the market prices it is basically still relatively stable , of course, is the case of a high probability , if sudden and unexpected , there is no way to predict . But under the present circumstances , the next few years should not see a sudden outbreak of 2007 and 2009 as it looks .
[ Moderator ] : In such a state , for real estate , some say bubble , do you think the bubble phenomenon really exist ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Foam difficult to define from an economic point of view . After the collapse of the bubble is actually called bubble collapse can not say inflated or overdraft in advance of future growth. But just inside the blue-chip stocks to sell a few hundred shares , earnings more than 100 , you can say there must be a problem? Junk stocks a few cents , there is no bubble , it is worth buying ? This inside look at the future macroeconomic trends . From the real estate itself , I think there is no need to discuss is not a bubble , but must face the current high prices of objective reality , it is very dangerous to admit , inflated serious. Now the Government 's policy , in fact, trying to make a soft landing to avoid a hard landing. Otherwise like such a complicated situation under the Chinese property market really crash , the price is very large . Best soft landing .
[ Moderator ] : Now there are some Chinese ghost phenomenon .
[ Guest Jie ] : the so-called ghost phenomenon , that is a high vacancy rate in the house here , no one to live. Indeed this phenomenon . Many communities are black light district, there is no night live . From the existence of the case . But how to look at this issue ? If it is itself an investment behavior , the investment behavior of developers, rather than the government saddled with excessive debt funding of public finances should not be the executive to intervene . The risk of investment is sometimes unavoidable , it is difficult to say that all cells in one step, all you want to buy a very short stay, the need for a period , to observe a period of time , this is to let the market to test and eliminated. Under the old planned economy before speaking overcapacity in some sectors , the government went to the pipe tune , over the years found a serious lack of capacity . Representation such as electricity . There are often shout highway surplus , excess high-speed rail , and now we have found a high attendance of high-speed rail . The key here is to prevent the government assume the risk of public debt . Metro made ​​itself not a problem.
[ Moderator ] : If we say more words , whether the impact on the property market ?
[ Guest Jie ] : housing vacancy rate is high in some areas , the resources do not represent the optimal configuration. Can allow short-term vacancy , but if long idle , apparently did not make the best use of them. From this perspective, you can understand why such a high property taxes voices , improving idle costs and accelerate the best use . Economic problems to use economic means , with administrative measures tube well.
[ Moderator ] : Now the whole of China 's real estate market is oversupply or less than the demand ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Nationally , the initial realization of the supply and demand balance , 2012 National Urban per capita housing area has reached 33 square meters , the urban household population and nearly 90 percent homeownership . Of course, there is a great difference in the quality of urban housing , about 40% to 50 % of the house was built before 1998, housing reform , the quality of life now with the demand gap. But absolute shortage is eliminated. But the shortage is still a serious structural exist . In particular, the pressure is very large cities , Shanghai per capita housing area in the past decade , according to the Bureau of Statistics announced increased a lot, also reached more than three , but it's just counting the tenancy. If the resident figure , it is only 27 square meters per capita , especially in the foreign population per capita housing area of ​​only 15 square meters or so. We did some research and saw a large area of ​​base rent , housing conditions are very poor . From this perspective , housing is still in short supply . But you can adjust the household population idle house to them? The relative balance of the total can not be resolved on the local, regional , and different groups of people , particularly the housing shortage of migrant workers .
[ Moderator ] : Maybe some small parts of the city , this phenomenon is essentially flat. The overall trend in housing prices continued to rise in the future is still stable ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Many people think that a round of policy , not how prices down , very angry . In fact, there are two problems , if prices really fall , he will buy it? The second house prices fell really , how many people will be happy ? Now shouting people will express his needs, but does not mean that people can shout on behalf of the majority. For example, housing prices have fallen, we can see the new buyers to make trouble , do not let developers cut prices , or to compensate the so-called "house downtown ." Under China's current situation , household population 80% of people are of the house, so the policy can not consider only certain people should have to consider the interests of the whole situation. This policy came out , the impact on who will be a little larger . For example, prices fell under the circumstances , how lethal kind , how lethal cases rise , the government should conduct a comprehensive balance. So from this point of view is not only an economic issue prices , is a dominant issue , a social stability maintenance problems.
[ Moderator ] : prices have been so high, not the cause unilateral even want to drop , nor that it drop down . Lead to higher Chinese real estate trends in recent years , contributed to the cause of what ?
[ Guest Jie ] : First still have an economic fundamentals . GDP growth this decade fivefold , revenue also increased more than four times , of course, is average , but the average house price growth also . The case of income growth , so house prices are not rising impossible. Your income growth , equivalent to the proliferation of land in the city , public services better, which are capitalized in house prices inside, this is the main reason . There is also a very important historical reasons. We do not engage in real estate from nothing . Can now afford to buy a house but also a handful , he is relying on parents , as well as by their parents a small house . Those parents house is relatively low prices , obtained through the housing reform . In this case, the government is not particularly worried about the house issue. Prices so high , in fact, affect the young , the elderly, middle-aged man does not influence , does not constitute a particularly large social problem . Third, the reason is also very important relocation to Shanghai , for example, in the past these houses built in Shanghai , 40 percent is built out of demolition because it is a self-created to meet the needs of their own , which some people have the purchasing power . Home buyers cultural traditions , but also a reason , but it is not so important, because before we actually are in the rental housing reform . Really important reason is economic transformation of our income inequality , wealth differentiation too serious . If we are the same income, an age to buy a house , buy a house almost , now would not have so many complaints. Because family background is different, because into a different line of business, after a few years the difference is great, it unbalanced psychological . Twenty years ago, not so much complaining .
Speaking of the wealth gap , fundamentally industrialization , urbanization , and globalization , these are exacerbated by the gap . Not to mention the government ignored this problem for some time , or deliberately connived rich-poor divide , even the government really want to pipe in the world how narrow the wealth gap is quite hard .
[ Moderator ] : I read online that even miss the housing distribution era.
[ Guest Jie ] : is to see how choice, some places in the north , the development is not fast, that local governments play slogan, livable city , in fact, development is relatively slow , so the price is relatively not high . But where young people or in fleeing , or to go to the southeast coast , still have a chance to think here . Today they want to base rent , but felt in Shanghai provided an opportunity future fortunes , have their own house. However, since the choice of the " dream" , the adjustments do mentality . If you think you fit in Shanghai , you may suffer some of the stages to go . Go to some small and medium- tier cities, many small housing stress , but life may not be what you want . Difficult co-existence . It depends on how you choose .
[ Moderator ] : In fact, the government of the entire real estate development is also doing a lot of stable policies , these policies come later , more or less for some of those who bought a house in the heart of an impact this new policy direction for the entire real estate market, the impact of future how?
[ Guest Jie ] : New State 5 to 20% of this new tax policy is currently hanging in there, in addition to Beijing to do , the other is empty there. But it released a signal control policy continuity exists . Indeed due to the relatively large pressure areas , where complain more, this session when the new government came to power due to various reasons, did not execute down. But the original intention of the policy itself is valuable. To solve the problem because the real estate , you have to return to its essence , is to return to live property , consumer attributes , eliminate investment properties , among which the key is to reduce profit margins . Property transfer tax value , not only in our country but other countries have in common . This signal is still on there today , there is no recovery, to find a suitable point in time or will reiterate . This year the economic situation is not very good , may not want to make matters worse . But the future will be performed.
We have to distinguish between the effects of the initial implementation of the policy and continued to work behind the effect , these two are not the same. Just the implementation of real estate has certain advantages , second-hand housing relative mobility reduced, many people will find use Yishoufang to replace , so Yishoufang developers or some perk . But if the real continues to perform it, the real estate company, in the long run , it is not a good news , because Yishoufang will eventually become second homes, so that investment demand is suppressed. So overall , the real estate industry growth and profit margins are being compressed in .
[ Moderator ] : After this policy came out and said there will be a divorce tide appears , but for now , it seems not very much influence do you think really that the implementation of this policy continues , it will not affect various other aspects of it?
[ Guest Jie ] : Divorced tide, we saw in March or severely broke out a little, then we feel the government does not really want to go and get it , first wait and see what , stopped down. But if you want to really push the government transfer tax , at least initially pushed or re outbreak. Because regardless of other people , I feel real money can be saved on the line. This is understandable of avoiding disadvantages . Policy design issues should expect to see in advance , should be as tight.
[ Moderator ] : It is said that one month's explosion of trading volume also .
[ Guest Jie ] : this policy , people 's reaction is also a rational. I recently wrote a number of articles in this issue , alone in promoting a policy , there will be a lot of unexpected circumstances , each policy is indeed to be very cautious , to think of each case must then have a number of supporting measures to defuse possible problems.
[ Moderator ] : this time, what our country has a policy to regulate our large real estate market?
[ Guest Jie ] : one is from the real estate market, which is nothing more than supply and demand in two ways. A tax and financial issues , including increasing the down payment and the need to raise interest rates is mainly credit . There is also a very important administrative means , that restriction, this move is very powerful. Supplying this regard , it seems relatively effective measures are not too much. Because the land is in control of the local government side , finance and taxation can direct control of the central government , local government land but there is always a variety of reasons , and it is difficult to go across the board. Currently , the regulation should be said that there are effects . Some people say that if you want to follow falling house prices , it appears to have little effect, but at least inhibit the kind of boom 07 and 2009 , as well as to stabilize the market expectations. Of course, many people feel dissatisfied. The Government is also aware that this is temporary, has not found a fundamental governance programs . In fact , apart from this regulation , there is a more compelling measure , that is a large-scale affordable housing , a layer of overweight, has now become a five-year 36 million units, very large . But the implementation of it down , we still feel as though a little further , beneficiaries or too little . Scale so large, but in the end was built where there is who benefits , and not very transparent and makes it convincing. In fact , housing security and the protection of housing , some of the most basic questions have not been discussed up to now clear why security, security who protect and to what extent , who will protect , and so on , are not considered.
[ Moderator ] : This is the one thing everyone a headache .
[ Guest Jie ] : Of course I think the government has some internal discussions , we all feel now too chaotic housing system is too complex , it seems many levels , many varieties, but did not actually give ordinary people a variety of choices. Personally, I think eventually, the variety of affordable housing must be simplified. Shanghai has done recently in low-rent housing and public rental housing merger , the fitness room is also slowly fade out eventually , and finally public rental housing . But public rental housing is a platform that does not have differential treatment , non-discriminatory , anyone can come to stay . But you have to enjoy the protection that is government subsidies , then based on your income , you have to honest, truthful reporting, based on your income to housing subsidies. The so-called "Do not make bricks , fill the head ." Because the house is either given or not given , the line across the board , almost enjoy the treatment of income on a world of difference , and once gave a great mistake on the loss , then later improved income beneficiaries can not compel exit. But money can open a little difference according to income , just like shooting , you can hit more accurately point to the real needs of people , hit the wrong target , the loss is less. More importantly, such as improved income beneficiaries can stop .
[ Moderator ] : Then what kind of policy can promote the steady development of the next real estate ?
[ Guest Jie ] : China real estate current situation , we are very anxious, anxious not just let the status quo , but more anxiety is that we can not see the future, see directions . We need a shore. If the future can be seen in one direction , so that we know the answer , just as the Red Army the same, there is the target, no matter how tough it can be hard to get over . So we have to find a direction , so that everyone relieved. The so-called top-level design , the core is to find where the other side . Direction does still rather vague , but the two basic points should not be changed , the first one is market-oriented can not be changed , and the second is that the Government must take responsibility for underpinning security. My personal idea is not yet mature , and ultimately housing system should become " three bedrooms plus a tax and a " pattern.
That "real estate , Anju , public rental " plus " property taxes and housing subsidies ." High-income housing problems or should this release , we must resolutely to the market to resolve , only the market can solve their diverse and demanding housing needs . The problem of low-income housing , plus the difference depends on renting housing subsidies , not only the lease of public rental housing can apply for housing subsidies , rent private housing can apply for housing subsidies. The middle class is the largest number , and also the most difficult to define. Of course, you can buy them as part of real estate , you can rent, but taking into account the particular social contexts Chinese demand for ownership housing must be provided a choice of commercial residential property room beyond . My idea is that such housing on the one hand to provide a stable middle class residence is valued function , on the other hand to peel the investment function .
How do you say ? Not a lot of people say I bought a house not to invest , is to their own homes , then how do you prove it ? On the market there is no such breed , we offer such variety. This one-time sale of a house , anyone can buy , developers will reflow of funds , the funds will not burden the formation of public rental . You can afford to live , to live a decade or more teenagers can be, do not worry about moving , ah, ah account such problems . But I'm sorry, not a very long time such housing market, there is a lock-up period , during which you want listed , then the original price plus inflation repo government . Then sold to other people. This put the house investment property removed. In fact, the equivalent of affordable housing, but more stringent than the removal of affordable housing investment function . We can give it a name , " Anju ." I wrote two articles expressed this idea. Shenzhen now has a similar , can not be listed within a decade . Such housing, there is a real demand for people to live to be purchased, so the market will have a diversified supply system.
[ Moderator ] : If such a policy can be implemented , I think for now talking of people who can not afford housing , a quality policy .
[ Guest Jie ] : Of course, this stuff needs some run-in . So the top-level design does not come out of thin air , need to come from the bottom of the experiment , each place can go to trial , the housing reform is so last century breakthroughs . If there Guiyang Housing Bank 's policy , the government went to buy some houses and rented some people, is a good experiment. But you do not try to discuss only in theory or hard, it is difficult to know in the end is good . If you try out the effect , you can slowly open. But if the old way is always spinning old mode , we will be very anxious, can not see the future .
[ Moderator ] : Professor Chan , people today give us some suggestions , do not go out in the premise , we placed or how to invest ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Since you want to invest, or have such mental capacity , it is impossible not to be able to hand the money anxiety . Investment must withstand a certain pressure. You do not want to bear the pressure, or open up a bit , at least to make it clear what kind of house you want , how you want to have a house , and these things are a process, the end result is what you ? And for people who do not have a house , there is a key to do selection, to determine , in Shanghai you have much chance of success ? Shanghai 's life , of course, will definitely give you some temptation exciting than you would at home , but living in Shanghai , will certainly be more difficult, you need to think clearly. Think clearly do not waver . Of course, the government also has the responsibility of government , not thanks to regulate the market , some shortage of talent , leaving no if , and Shanghai will be difficult to develop , the government should invest in for the future of the city , talent is the biggest investment. In the middle of the democratic parties have a responsibility to help the government .
[ Moderator ] : Our topic today is the rational view . Just keep saying high prices, Professor Chen , the price is how the minds of the people think?
[ Guest Jie ] : I think the idea of ​​100 100 people , it is difficult to say the people in mind what kind of prices , there is no house to house requirements are not the same . The times we live in , from the economic point of non- equilibrium . If the developed countries like the real estate market has reached equilibrium , the people will not talk so much to the house , will not prices anxiety. We now not only because of your house , and the house is too closely associated with our lives , but also because it is changing every day , put our hearts stir was not calm down . So I think that if people in mind what is the ideal prices , is the price as smooth as possible , and gradually harmonize with income. Not only is the people want this government want this, visionary developers also hope the price is a stable and sustainable, not to spike .
[ Moderator ] : listening to Professor Chen talked about so much, one mind, one is real estate to stabilize and be conducive to future development . Today, friends and friends are also concerned about this issue , we look at a few questions of users, China 's urbanization mean that the continuing large-scale real estate investment ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Urbanization actually consists of two parts, one is the farmers into the city , some of it is urbanized , small cities to big cities. From the perspective of farmers into the city , but also require large-scale investments. But from small cities to big cities , we believe that the accumulation effect is an inevitable trend in big cities , so cities , urban centers will continue to increase investment in real estate , including urban renewal , urban transformation brought about by investment, but three or four lines Real estate investment is likely to follow the weak .
[ Moderator ] : So we Shanghai real estate market and elsewhere compared to what unique characteristics ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Recent Shanghai real estate is still relatively stable , while Shanghai 's housing prices have been high, on the other hand Shanghai in recent years some of the real estate and housing security policy enforcement is still relatively high government , the attitude is resolute , market expectations are more stable. Shanghai's real estate market relative to other major cities , the relative stability of some prominent flashpoint nothing but good security number . However, the macroeconomic situation is changing rapidly , how to get the American economy , free trade policies will bring what the expected impact , should always take precautions .
[ Moderator ] : Here there are friends that would like to ask a question , Professor Chen , the proportion of land prices across the room rate which accounts for how much ?
[ Guest Jie ] : This is hard Yigai standard , medium and small cities , it is basically not very valuable land , but land prices in Shanghai is the most important . Nationally , construction costs will not vary greatly, basically a square from 3000 to 5000 , but the big difference around the house prices are mainly land costs. Behind the price of land , the difference is the quality of public services of the city, city attractiveness and growth potential difference.
[ Moderator ] : Some netizens said that China 's real estate is not it will collapse ?
[ Guest Jie ] : From the probability is definitely yes, but we try to avoid . From the current point of view , unless there is a particularly large war or financial crisis , but also less likely to crash occurs . But it must be highly vigilant .
[ Moderator ] : It is not to say that the higher prices , the more dangerous it is close to the point of collapse ?
[ Guest Jie ] : This can not be said that Shanghai 's housing prices much higher than the four-tier cities , we can not say that Shanghai is easier than the other four-tier cities collapse. If the policy is out of control, jumped after the crash must have a callback . The collapse of the housing bubble , Japan 's most important lesson is that financial liberalization release too fast, too sudden change in interest rates is expected to manage failure. At present China is still relatively cautious in this regard , at least 30% down payment , relatively speaking, would circumvent many financial risks. But housing prices in major Chinese cities has come to this stage, is to be very careful of .
[ Moderator ] : Some experts pointed out that the market price is about a very important factor , high domestic prices now starting to affect the status of some Chinese factories , some foreign investors more attention to our country , is not to we are a warning of it ?
[ Guest Jie ] : After high prices , eventually it will be reflected in the rent up . The city's operating costs , business costs, labor costs will be increased accordingly. There is a reasonable part of rising rents , incomes and public services really are better than before , in part, is malignant, high prices Forced indeed would be of great macroeconomic impact. Including real estate overheating, the other Industrial funds attracted , then the vicious cycle of ischemia and Industrial overheated real estate funds will gradually enlarge.
[ Moderator ] : Some netizens said that with the rapid economic development of western China , is gradually increased employment opportunities , coastal cities will gradually reduce people to earn money on the coastal areas , the high price is not be played down ?
[ Guest Jie ] : Midwest developed, balanced development throughout , and indeed will reduce some of the housing needs of the coastal cities , but mainly on the 234 line peripheral coastal cities would be affected. Center for Coastal cities , the impact is not too great. Because the industrial structure, job opportunities in coastal cities and urban centers of the Midwest and the corresponding attract people still have big differences.
(Editor:PAUL ZENG)
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